A daily close above $52K and…? Here’s what a long-term Bitcoin rally needs
Bitcoin’s price rallied exponentially on 28 February, with the same fueling an explosion in alts’ values. While this move is bullish in the short-term, the bull rally over a high time frame (HTF) perspective has not kick-started yet.
A breakdown of BTC’s crucial areas
Despite the recent upswing, the twelve-hour chart for BTC showed that Bitcoin has not set a higher high to even get the ball rolling for an HTF bull run. Moreover, the presence of the weekly supply zone, stretching from $45,550 to $51,993, makes it difficult to be optimistic.
Even if bulls push BTC to pierce the said supply zone, a lack of buying pressure could lead to rejection. Moreover, the formation of a triple tap setup on the twelve-hour chart seemed to suggest that Bitcoin is likely to pull a 180 and head lower.
The primary targets include $40,377 – Indicating an 8.6% downswing from its press time position. In some cases, BTC could head as low as $38,895 – The upper limit of the daily demand zone ranging up to $36,398.
For now, the short-term bearish outlook is limited to $36,398. A bounce off the aforementioned demand zone will likely trigger another run-up that attempts to shatter the weekly supply zone.
Supporting this short-term bearish outlook is the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model. This indicator is used to assess the average profit/loss of investors who purchased BTC tokens over the past year.
A negative value below -10% indicates that short-term holders are at a loss. It is typically where long-term holders tend to accumulate. Therefore, a value below -10% is often referred to as an “opportunity zone.”
Due to the recent upswing, the 30-day MVRV value went up from -7% to 8% in roughly a week. This move indicates that short-term holders who purchased BTC in the past month are in profit. These investors could offload their BTC holdings to book profits, leading to a short-term downswing.
Interestingly, the last time 30-day MVRV spiked up to 11%, BTC’s price dropped by 20%. Therefore, if history repeats itself, BTC could be due for a short-term crash. This outlook aligns perfectly with the technical perspective, adding credence to the correction thesis.
Requirements for a bull run
To give the long-term bull run a chance, BTC needs two confirmations –
- BTC needs to produce a daily candlestick close above $52,000 – As a secondary confirmation, the weekly candlestick also needs to be above this level
- The second condition is for BTC to produce after a daily/weekly close above $52,000